Vice Presidental Debate Afterthoughts

By Jon Pessah

No, it wasn't a train wreck that every one was expecting, if not hoping for. The Sarah Palin-Joe Biden "debate" captured everyone's attention, the same way everyone slows down to see the car crash on the side of the road.

So, now that it is over, what really happened?

The bar was so low that all Palin had to do was not fall down when she walked out on stage and she would have exceeded expectations. This was not a debate, it was a question and answer session, and Palin often just ignored the question if she did not have a prepared answer. Hardball's Chris Matthews said it was like watching someone at a spelling bee reciting things she had just learned. Close enough.

Had the moderator asked a follow up question for specifics, chances are that Palin would have screwed up. She is not very knowledgeable, and to anyone watching with an objective eye, that was readily apparent. But she stuck to what she knew, repeated the word maverick 20 times — at least — and smiled and winked for the camera, something I think will turn off as many people as it turns on. The last thing most people want now with country falling apart is Gidget. We’re finishing up eight years of that now.

Bottom line: had Palin fucked up, the campaign would have ended. She didn’t, but she didn’t undo all the damage inflicted by Tina Fey and Katie Couric. Had Biden fucked up and Palin hit a home run, it might have been a game changer. That didn’t happen, either. Biden was impressive, and the polls showed independents saying he won, 41%-21%.

So, worst case for Obama: the debate left things unchanged, and that is a big plus. Obama is ahead in all the polls, including virtually all the swing states. McCain tried to sneak out of Michigan yesterday without anyone noticing, using the debate as cover, but the fact that he closed down his campaign and conceded in a big, blue collar swing state he badly needed is very telling.

Expect McCain to go deeply negative. We will hear all about Rev. Wright and Williams Ayers and Tony Resco. He will also suggest that Barack is Muslim and remind everyone that he is BLACK! Given the state of affairs, I think the negative tactics with fall short if not straight out backfire. Hate to get too confident, but without a big game-changing event — another terrorist attack, which would not surprise me — it is hard to see how Obama loses.

Thanks to Janet Hill for the breakdown of Sarah Palin's debate tactics.